Crazy Flux
  • Business
  • World
  • Stocks
  • Investing
  • Business
  • World
  • Stocks
  • Investing

Crazy Flux

Stocks

Is This the Confidence Trap That Could Wreck Your Retirement Portfolio?

by admin April 16, 2025
April 16, 2025
Is This the Confidence Trap That Could Wreck Your Retirement Portfolio?

If last weekend’s tech tariff exemptions teach us anything, it’s this: trying to make near-term market forecasts based on tariff assumptions is a fool’s errand.

But that leaves a big question for active investors near or in retirement: How do you make smart decisions when the market’s running on chaos?

On Monday morning, when all three broader U.S. stock market indexes were in the green, I pulled up the new StockCharts Market Summary page and glanced at the Keller Market Models panel to check the S&P 500’s short-term, medium-term, and long-term trend positions. According to this model’s forecast, the S&P 500, despite its short- and medium-term declines, still has its uptrend intact. If this reading of the market environment remains as is, then perhaps it’s time to look for signs of a major reversal to the upside.

But what if the bullish reversal isn’t broad-based? What if it moves by sectors instead?

One way to check is by looking at the Bullish Percent Indexes (BPIs) within the Market Summary. Here’s what it showed on Monday:

FIGURE 1. BULLISH PERCENT INDEXES.  Looking at the sectors—gold miners isn’t a sector—Consumer Staples and Utilities were the two that showed signs of hope.

The BPI is a breadth indicator that tells you the percentage of stocks (within a given index) generating Point & Figure Buy Signals.

An early warning bullish alert is triggered when the BPI is below 30% and then forms a new column of X’s (rises). On Monday, the only two sectors flashing these alerts were Consumer Staples (42.11%) and Utilities (45.16%). However, there’s a less obvious issue here. If the S&P 500’s long-term uptrend holds and eventually pulls the short- and medium-term trends higher, the leadership matters.

Defensive sectors don’t typically drive or sustain bull markets. These sectors are where investors go when they’re playing it safe, not when they are betting on growth. In contrast, sectors like Technology or Consumer Discretionary usually take the lead in a true risk-on environment.

Take a look at the Consumer Staples BPI chart.

FIGURE 2. CONSUMER STAPLES BPI. Watch how price reacts to the support (magenta lines) and resistance ranges (blue-shaded area).

Using the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) as a sector proxy, watch how its price reacts to key near-term resistance levels (marked by magenta lines) and the support zone (blue-shaded area). The ZigZag overlay highlights swing highs and lows, helping you spot the near-term trend: higher highs and higher lows (HH + HL) signal an uptrend, while lower highs and lower lows (LH + LL) indicate a downtrend. While the BPI for staples is flashing a bull alert, it is price action that ultimately defines the trend and provides the setup for whether to act or sit tight.

Now, switch over to the Utilities sector BPI chart, using the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) as a proxy.

FIGURE 3. UTILITIES SECTOR BPI. Pay attention to the lower side of the price channel.

While XLU faces a sideways range scenario similar to XLP, utilities are managing to make lower lows. This is why I used Price Channels here, whereas, in the Consumer Staples example, I overlaid a ZigZag line—the channels can better illustrate this subtle detail.

Does this indicate relative weakness in XLU vs. XLP? Possibly, but it depends on whether XLU’s price swings can penetrate the upper channel (resistance) while staying above the lower channel (support), which it previously failed to do.

But to answer the question of relative performance, this PerfCharts shows that XLU has been outperforming XLP—and both have outpaced the S&P 500—over the last year.

FIGURE 4. COMPARING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE S&P 500, XLU, & XLP. Is the Utilities sector overbought or taking a breather?

Whether Utilities have room for further upside is largely dependent on the broader market environment, which, for now, remains unpredictable. So keep an eye on the technical levels instead.

What to Do Now

Defensive sectors don’t lead bull markets; they are the sectors where investors hide out during turbulence. Right now, the market feels less like a cycle and more like a geopolitical chess match, where the moves are unpredictable, unorthodox, and hard to price in. If you decide to go “defensive,” Consumer Staples and Utilities may make sense, but only if the price action supports your goals, and likely only as a short-term play.

That said, if you’re nearing retirement, it’s just as important to keep capital on the sidelines—ready to go on “offense” when the broader bull market kicks back in.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

previous post
Presenting on Emerging Growth Conference 81 Day 1 on April 16; Register to live stream
next post
Can Africa’s EV revolution support rural women?

Related Posts

DP Trading Room: Key Support Levels for the...

April 8, 2025

My Downside Target for the S&P 500

March 10, 2025

The Best Five Sectors, #5

February 3, 2025

S&P 500 Selloff: Bearish Rotation & Key Downside...

March 6, 2025

Gold and Silver Are Crushing the S&P 500!...

February 25, 2025

Hidden MACD SIGNAL? Key Trade Signals Explained!

February 27, 2025

Top 10 Stock Charts For May 2025: Breakouts,...

May 3, 2025

Watch For These Seasonality Patterns in 2025

February 5, 2025

An Oversold Bounce is One Thing – A...

April 15, 2025

Week Ahead: While NIFTY Continues To Consolidate, Watching...

May 4, 2025

    Join our mailing list to get access to special deals, promotions, and insider information. Your exclusive benefits await! Enjoy personalized recommendations, first dibs on sales, and members-only content that makes you feel like a true VIP. Sign up now and start saving!


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent

    • India and Pakistan are both claiming victory after this week’s clashes. Will cooler heads prevail?

      May 9, 2025
    • UK’s King Charles lays wreath to mark 80th anniversary of VE Day

      May 9, 2025
    • Israeli military extends detention of Palestinian journalist despite acknowledging lack of evidence

      May 9, 2025
    • Israel vows to ‘defend ourselves alone’ after Trump strikes truce with Houthis

      May 9, 2025
    • This company’s edible skincare products are full of ‘raw Ghanaian goodness’

      May 9, 2025
    • Robert Prevost elected as first American pope and takes the name Leo XIV

      May 9, 2025
    • About us
    • Contacts
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Email Whitelisting

    Disclaimer: crazyflux.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.


    Copyright © 2025 crazyflux.com | All Rights Reserved